Frisky Larr

Sharing my thoughts and putting my message accross

Desperate President Jonathan weighing suicidal options?

GEJ Thinking

When news first broke out that the secondary school leaving certificate of the presidential candidate of the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) was to become a campaign issue in the Nigerian presidential elections, every right-thinking Nigerian dismissed the idea out of hand and considered it a huge joke. After all, the retired Major-General was not running for the Presidency for the first time. The supposed joke soon developed into headline news, became talk-of-the-town and subject of a satirical musical denigration before finally ending up in court in surrogate litigation. It was the continuum of a desperate bid to secure the return of the incumbent President for a second term in office.

In the course of the malicious propaganda drive applied exclusively by the ruling party of President Jonathan that attempted to utilize all forms of dirty tricks in the hope that one would stick, an obviously outraged aide to the President’s Senior Special Assistant on Public Affairs came up with very angry verses transmitted through the Blackberry Messenger. Mr. Deji Adeyanju left no doubt about what he considers the sheer unthinkable option of a Buhari Presidency in a democratic Nigeria. “Buhari can never be President of Nigeria. Quote me any day, any time. A military coup will even be allowed than for Buhari to become the President of a democratic Nigeria” Conclusively, he repeated “Quote me any day, any time!”

More than a fortnight has passed since campaigns for the coveted office of President was launched in Nigeria. Again another joke is brewing in the political horizon.

Media information is simply not going away insinuating that the President of Nigeria is mulling several incredible options to short-change the democratic process if he is unable to stop the present momentum from translating into palpable electoral gains for the ex-General of the opposition party come February 14, 2015. In testing the waters to feel the depth of public reaction, the President had obviously delegated a junior Officer in the person of his National Security Adviser, Sambo Dasuki to call for the postponement of the elections that is due in barely 10 days. The ensuing aftershock reverberated far beyond the shores of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Unfortunately, one cannot help but live with the impression that Nigerian politicians have failed to draw any useful conclusion from the Wikileaks scandal of 2010. At least we do know today, thanks to Julian Assange, that the foreign diplomatic missions of major powers all over the world are hardly anything else but intelligence-gathering stations. It did not seem to have dawned on Nigerian politicians that the election campaign was and is still being monitored closely by foreign agents with reports wired back home by the invisible observers of the United States and the European Union covered by diplomatic immunity.

In the end, the Secretary of State of the United States had to squeeze an unscheduled visit to Nigeria into his itineraries. In the ensuing consultations that saw him meeting with the President and the opposition candidate on Nigerian soil, he successfully extracted assurances from both sides that the presidential election will be peaceful and above all, will not be postponed. The President gave him his word and no government functionary came out ever since, to call for the postponement of the election. With knowledge of how such meetings are held however, every objective observer will report of stern warnings and coercions that the strong often uses against the weak.

As the days pass by, it has become obvious that the President is losing more following in a groundswell of public disenchantment with his image and general performance since the past six years.

In place of government functionaries, investigative reports now do the talking and the gist just won’t go away, that the postponement option is still very much on the table if other options fail.

Other options are the judicial disqualification of the opposition candidate in cases filed by surrogates of the President himself while the threat that was messaged by Mr. Deji Adeyanju has suddenly taken center stage all over again. The military may be allowed to take over government rather than permit the handover of political power to the ex-Major General of the opposition in an impending and largely forecast landslide victory. In an Obama-type juggernaut cruise, the momentum and pendulum that have unmistakably swung the way of the opposition is bringing out a degree of massive desperation in the President’s camp that transcends all the imaginations of any mortal observer.

The truth however is that all the options on the table mean trouble for the incumbent President no matter the choices made. In the characteristic fashion that has defined the Presidency of Mr. Jonathan for the past six years, a realistic appraisal of the prevailing situation with a view to working out the best solution in the interest of the country doesn’t seem to be a choice to make. The belief and trust in the power of incumbency seems to be so massively exaggerated in the President’s camp that a defeat seems to sound like a sacrilege in their ears particularly if that defeat is suffered against the man called Muhammadu Buhari. For this reason, national interest is sacrificed at the altar of personal ambitions to keep the clique feeding fat.

Given the bitterness and desperation with which the campaign has been prosecuted so far by the President’s men (with chains of trivial muds thrown at the opposition candidate unnecessarily), it will be difficult to appeal to a sense of goodwill and benevolence on the part of General Buhari if eventually, a smooth transition is enforced by any chance. On the other hand, should Major-General Muhammadu Buhari get disqualified by any corrupt and compromised judge (that is not hard to come by in today’s Nigeria) in spite of all the clarifications offered so far, not only by the secondary school attended by the candidate in his childhood days but also by Cambridge University, which was a major player in the high school leaving examinations of those early years after independence, Nigeria will surely descend into uncontrollable anarchy. The fuel subsidy protest of 2011 will be a child’s play in comparison. In the end, the merit of the case will be of no interest to any single person anymore in and outside the country since the plot is known to be a deliberate design of the incumbent power to perpetuate itself in office.

Furthermore, if the President’s tribal companion and hatchet man General Kenneth Minimah who was elevated over forcibly retired senior officers into the position of Chief of Army Staff to guard the President’s back, takes a shot at a military coup d’etat, he will have to march over hundreds of corpses to consolidate whatever power he may have left. He will quickly realize then that Nigeria in front of the United States of America does not command such strategic importance as Egypt does to get away with the massacre of innocent civilians in the name of securing and consolidating political power.

It is true that there is hardly any world power, for which Nigeria commands so much importance as Cote d’Ivoire does for France. It can therefore be safely expected that no country will march into Nigeria to arrest Goodluck Jonathan (like France did in Cote d’Ivoire to arrest Laurent Gbagbo) if Jonathan plunges Nigeria into chaos for his own selfish ends. Yet there are several countries that will not fold their arms and watch Nigeria disintegrate. Intelligence gathering has already armed several key countries with all possible and plausible scenarios that may unfold under the heightened tension unwittingly sowed on Nigeria by Goodluck Jonathan.

The fear of the scale of his involvement in large-scale corruption that has now enveloped Nigeria and his involvement in the atrocities of Boko Haram that Jonathan probably fears will be unveiled by Muhammadu Buhari will be hastened with even more intensive consequences if collaboration with foreign forces finally enforce the defeat that Jonathan will ultimately suffer.

In each of the scenarios that may play out in the aftermath of Jonathan’s unavoidable defeat, armed resistance by his militants that he has so well equipped with weapons that he has denied the Nigerian Army, will be crushed with the help of foreign alliances despite misleading and superficial successes they may achieve at the onset. How quickly warships can be destroyed with missiles that are remotely fired from a comfortable distance will be realized by these illiterate perpetrators and probably awaken the much needed sobriety in the consciousness of these intoxicated sons of Jah-most-high in the Marijuana creeks.

Today, the magic that the presidential election has worked is made manifest in the sudden permission of 7,500 armed fighters of the African Union into Nigeria in its battle against Boko Haram where American military trainers were unceremoniously kicked out in controversial circumstances. The fact that the Americans and the Israelis have refused to sell sophisticated military hardware to Nigeria should be warning enough for President Jonathan that the international community has no appetite whatsoever to help the President arm his private army in the creeks of the Niger Delta to the detriment of the Nigerian army. And we know only of these two countries.

In the end, Mr. Jonathan hardly has any alternative to the staging of a free and fair presidential election devoid of any misuse of the judiciary, the military and the electoral commission. He has no choice but to concede defeat on the 15th of February 2015 when he will be declared beaten hands down. Nigeria will not survive international economic sanctions on top of the present hardship endured by the common man to satisfy the political whims and caprices of a single person. Jonathan will end up an international fugitive and a candidate for the International Criminal Court if he allows the worst-case-scenario take hold on Nigeria. Then he may quickly realize how the 7,500 soldiers of the African Union may be quickly bolstered by aids and agitation from all over the world to not only crush the resistance of his private army but also to facilitate his own arrest. Once again, a word should be enough for the wise!

15 comments on “Desperate President Jonathan weighing suicidal options?

  1. Yinka
    February 5, 2015

    Dear Sir,

    Good to read your episode as titled the subject. I was very elated reading it. People like you have a lot of work to do in the sustenance of our democracy. You have to agree with me that allowing PDP to have gone this far in Nigeria is a collective failure of all of us.

    We all struggled to get the democracy but unfortunately we went to sleep having got the democracy as if it was automatic to guarantee our reaching the promised land but alas it was not but we have been worse off. No doubt we are witnessing the repeat of June 12 in Nigeria and any attempt to allow the collective will of the people to stand will not only spell doom but consume the perpetrators. I am not bothered either by the threats of the terrorists in the Niger Delta as I shared your sentiments that they are being worried by high illiteracy level. If not I have not seen where group of people who neither know how to manufacture weapons nor know how to operate modern ones begin to threaten the country and by extension the whole world with illegally acquired hardware.

    Thanks for your objective analysis once again, May the good Lord continue to be with you in all your endeavour and may you find the mercy of God as you have really shown true patriotism.

    Regards,

    Yinka.

  2. Sola Akin
    February 5, 2015

    What an eye opener, thanks for people like you, speaking to Mr president with confidence, we all know what is going on. Come Feb. He will be out of the office and the missing Nigeria money will be asked. Change will definitely take place.

  3. Abubakar Ardo
    February 5, 2015

    Hello,I just read ur write up on “desperate president jonathan…”,honestly we need more of u,more grease 2 ur elbow. May Almighty God bless,protect u,ur family & increase ur intellectual ability

  4. Blessing
    February 4, 2015

    U may be day dreaming about d Nig up coming polls Wake up

  5. A. A. Ojo
    February 4, 2015

    Thank you for such a wonderful article. It is one of the very few analysis that one can confirm to be water-tight both in its approach and also depth of analysis.

    The powers that be {government} are way to focused on internal strength, power of incumbency {whatever that maybe}, while forgetting what a “Russian treatment” might do to harass them out of power should the case arise.

    Kindly continue to keep the people informed, your service is of great importance.

    Ojo, A. A.

  6. Onyewuchi
    February 4, 2015

    Frisky,
    I hope you are very well.

    I am refreshed by the piece, the optimism and its transcendence about the usual colonial/ethnic narrative.

    The geopolitical nuggets/conclusions especially got my attention as a geopolitical analyst, you are on the money which is similar to my results earlier.

    Keep the fire burning! More grease…

    Onyewuchi.

  7. The Naija Verdict
    February 4, 2015

    Impressive well articulated write up!

  8. Usman Abubakar
    February 4, 2015

    Hello my brother i went through your write up tittle “Desperate
    president GEJ weighing suicidal option” really i go through it and it
    is very apreciatale writing and nothing untrue about it and also i
    realy enjoyed reading it and at the end you left your email adress
    there that’s why i said let me contact you and hello to you, i realy
    aprct it once again keep it up.

    From a reader from KADUNA.

  9. Braimoh
    February 4, 2015

    Dear Frisky,

    I found your article (Desperate President Jonathan Weighing Suicidal Option?) very interesting and commendable.

    I want to say that you people of the press should impress it on the American government to seek for commitment (on a daily basis) from the government of President Jonathan not to scuttle this election. Every day till the day of election, there should be a commitment from Jonathan to the effect that the election will not be shifted or postponed for whatever reason.

    Nigeria and Nigerians are ready for the polls and any attempt to scuttle it by the President’s men will be disastrous for this country. President Jonathan should not allow his name to be written on the dark history of this country. He has told Nigeria and Nigerians that his ambition does not worth the death or blood of any body in the country.

    He should be man enough to allow the elections to go on as proposed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

    Nigeria will never be like Ivory Coast.

    I salute your courage

    Thank you.

  10. Star
    February 4, 2015

    THANKS FOR THE ARTICLE YOU RELEASE, PLS KEEP IT UP UNTIL WE GET THERE. NIGERIA NEED HELP FROM THIS CLUELESS LEADERS. WE MUST NOT ALLOWED JONATHAN FOR ANOTHER 4YRS.

  11. Ojlovesme
    February 4, 2015

    Good Frisky. I can’t hide My opinion & expression of commendation on The keen; articulate article of yours.
    I wish the people concerned will read it and be sincere with themselves to forestall history from repeating itself.
    But, in their pride, they’ll even talk down a personality like yours.
    However, get this from Me that, some of us & even many believe in your realistic & well laid opinion. Regards

  12. Ishaya Medugu
    February 4, 2015

    Sir,
    After going through your write-up, I was very impressed with the light you shadded on the present political affairs prevailing in Nigeria that may likely trigger a nationwide crisis. We have not done yet with the problem of Boko haram, and we are seeing that PDP organization are planning to create a new catastrophe in Nigeria.

    The Nigeria citizens have undergone a serious hardship for the past six years under the leadership of President Goodluck Jonathan. In the northeast, over 17,000 people were killed by Boko haram, insecurity on the increase, highest level of corruption, lack of rule of law, poverty, unemployment, no food and shelter for the masses, highest rate of strikes imposed on workers and citizens by Jonathan in various sectors such as Health, Education, Oil and Gas, commuters Transport, Marketers, Lack of payment of salaries, etc.

    Nigerians have passed through hell of hardship. Suffering and dying in the mist of abundance. We all endured to this time of election, where we can collectively vote him out by seeking for change. Sometime last year, Nigerian wanted to impeach the president due to some gross misconduct, but we considered him to round-up his tenure, so at the end he can be voted out through the power of election. Knowing fully that he will be sink by the election, he embarked on evil-minded plans, that if succeeded in any, will end-up in tearing this country into serious crisis, which we don’t want to experience that at all.

    So, Nigerians, with due honour and respect, calling on all the International Communities and World Organizations with World Powers, to kindly save and deliver Nigerians from the evil hands of President Goodluck Jonathan. We have had enough of his bad leadership. Enough is enough. May God help us and grant Nigeria peace in Jesus name.

    Thank you sir.
    Ishaya Medugu.
    Abuja-Nigeria

  13. Abubakar Alkali
    February 4, 2015

    Dear Frisky Larr

    Thank you so much for an excellent article on the above subject.
    President Jonathan has no options other than to conduct the elections or take a suicidal course.

    Abubakar Alkali

  14. Hauwa Ibrahim
    February 4, 2015

    What an interesting piece! Informative, well worded and with humor.

    -Hauwa Ibrahim
    Visiting Lecturer
    Harvard University

  15. Adeniyi Oluwole
    February 4, 2015

    Hello Frisky,
    I must first congratulate you for your fantastic and well articulated analysis of what may become a ” New Nigeria ” with the way things are gradually unfolding in our beloved country Nigeria.
    With much interest, I have been a keen watcher of the political scenario in the last few weeks. My prayer is that President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan will not allow his personal interest to take Nigeria into a state of anarchy or worse still, make it a complete war zone.
    With all your thoughts so clearly written, I believe it is time for every sensible Nigerian to come together and see how best we can arrest the situation before it gets out of hand. Most especially those of us living outside the country.
    I currently reside in the US and each and every time I read about the country Nigeria, it feels like having to weep for the citizenry most especially the youths that still clamor for second time presidency for President Jonmathan.
    I think it’s high time we in the diaspora form a coalition of pressure groups and organize a strong protest movement before our beautiful country becomes a theater of war.

    Looking forward to hearing from you soon.
    I remain sincerely

    Adeniyi Oluwole

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